Sara’s Early 2028 Run Seen as Strategic Move

An analyst from University of the Philippines Diliman said Vice President Sara Duterte’s early declaration of her presidential bid for the 2028 elections may be linked to a series of legal and political challenges currently confronting her and her family.

In an interview, UP Diliman political science professor Jean Encinas-Franco pointed to developments such as the four impeachment complaints filed against Duterte, as well as crimes against humanity charges filed against her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, at the International Criminal Court.

“She needed it (early declaration of presidential bid) because there were events that were very related to her, at the ICC, the co-perpetrators were also mentioned by the ICC, then the impeachment proceedings against her. So, she needed to because if Bato and Bong Go are arrested, she would lose some of her loyalists (in the Senate),” Franco said.

Franco added that Duterte’s announcement, made ahead of the expected referral of impeachment complaints to the House committee on justice, may also be aimed at influencing political alignments across Congress.

“The House of Representatives may consider that she is strong in surveys, but surveys are only good when they are conducted, people are constantly thinking, but it’s a kind of pressure, I guess, her declaration to politicians, that you need to get in line,” Franco added.

She noted that despite low approval ratings, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. still wields considerable formal and informal influence.

“Even if you say the President’s popularity ratings are low, he remains President, he has many formal and informal powers to convince the lower house,” she said.

Franco also commented on Duterte’s decision not to entertain questions after announcing her presidential run.

“That’s what they wanted to do, control the narrative, so that she wouldn’t be asked anything else, because VP Sara is not good at answering questions. She’s not articulate,” Franco said.

She likewise questioned the Vice President’s public apology for supporting Marcos in the 2022 elections.

“It’s true that she apologized but what does that say of her judgment? You can also tell her that you made that decision, so what kind of judgment do you have if in the end, you don’t like whom you helped to win, but you helped him,” she noted.

Meanwhile, Leila de Lima said former president Rodrigo Duterte’s waiver and declaration show that he remains mentally capable of participating in his defense.

“Its legal effect is based on the premise that he understood the statement so as to affix his signature to it,” De Lima said.

“It is evidence against Kaufman’s own argument that Duterte is not fit to stand trial because he is supposedly unable to give instructions for his defense. The statement is clear evidence that Duterte is able to defend himself,” she added.

De Lima said the statement could also serve both as propaganda and legal strategy.

“It is propaganda as it projects a defiant Duterte but at the same time appeals to the emotion by saying he already expects to die inside prison. It is legal strategy because Duterte’s appearance will not serve any positive purpose but might endanger his defense in case Kaufman is not able to control him before the ICC judges, as Duterte is famous for his outbursts in whatever venue regardless of the solemnity of the occasion,” she added.

“The statement was obviously not prepared by Duterte. Duterte does not speak in such controlled manner. Duterte would have boasted that he implemented the drug war to save his country, rather than deny that any state-sponsored mass execution ever happened,” De Lima said.

She added that Duterte’s statement reflects his continued refusal to accept accountability under international law.

“That the ICC is real, that there is such a higher power and authority that can put him on trial and hold him to account. That is why he says the ICC kidnapped him and has no authority over him. For him, nothing and no one is above him. Because of this, other than defiance and denial, the statement only reveals Duterte’s pathological mindset – he still thinks, even when already in prison, that he is not beholden to any law or morality other than his own,” De Lima said.